Probability of an up market in 2023

-

 2023 will not be the first time in 90 years that the stock market follows up an awful year with a bad one. Just like in 1938, 1942, 1975, 2003, and 2009, it will be a year of record returns. 




Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Fed will not bring down inflation

-
Image
  Why does anyone believe the Fed can control inflation via changes in the Fed Funds “policy rate,” the overnight lending rate that the Fed can control the most. If this constantly repeated claim were true, it would show up in the data in the form of a close correlation between inflation and the Fed Funds rate. Look at the first graph below. Graph 1: Low correlation between Fed Funds Rate and CPI since 1983 We do see some co-movement from 1975 until about 1983, and then it stops. It is very difficult to detect even a correlation, never mind causation for the next 40 years. Inflation stays in a range first from roughly 1-5%, then well below 5% all the way from 1990 to 2021, spanning 31 years. Meanwhile the Fed Funds rate hopped up and down with no discernible impact on inflation. Amazingly, from 2009 through most of 2017, the Fed rate was below 1% and for much of the time near 0%. There was virtually no inflation. Graph 2 paints an even more dramatic picture, albeit using an inflati...
Read more

Higher interest rates not lowering interest rates

-
Image
  As I dug into the data this morning, I found a few things that were interesting. First, January’s 0.5% acceleration in the CPI was the  most since October 2022  (also 0.5%) and you have to go back to June 2022 for a higher monthly acceleration. The general consensus is that higher rates should lead to lower inflation. This means the 2-year inflation expectations in the market should be declining as the Fed gets more aggressive, but as Lisa Abramowicz pointed out this morning, inflation expectations in the market have actually been increasing over the last 6 months. Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1 U.S. 2-year inflation expectations have surged over the past six months, despite tighter Fed policy. 1:16 PM ∙ Mar 2, 2023 86 Likes 35 Retweets Inflation expectations are not the only place where the market is being distorted by this central bank intervention though.  Charlie Bilello points out  that US Treasury yields have gone from historic lows to 16-year highs in...
Read more

Critical Thinking, Logic & Problem Solving The Ultimate Guide to Better Thinking, Systematic Problem Solving and Making Impeccable Decisions with Secret Tips to Detect Logical Fallacies Bigrock Thinking

-
Image
  Critical Thinking, Logic & Problem Solving The Ultimate Guide to Better Thinking, Systematic Problem Solving and Making Impeccable Decisions with Secret Tips to Detect Logical Fallacies Bigrock Thinking Have you ever wished you were a more effective thinker? Do you feel overwhelmed when presented with a problem? In  Critical Thinking, Logic & Problem Solving , Bigrocks Thinking explains how you can enhance your critical thinking and problem-solving abilities to improve your learning, your work, and your personal life. The authors provide a step-by-step method for improving your ability to think critically and solve problems. They offer tips for conducting and thinking about research and information, covering issues like source reliability and logical fallacies. They also explain how to develop and implement solutions to problems, and they provide guidance on how to structure your thinking for effective communication and powerful storytelling. In our guide, we’ll also...
Read more