Higher interest rates not lowering interest rates

-

 As I dug into the data this morning, I found a few things that were interesting. First, January’s 0.5% acceleration in the CPI was the most since October 2022 (also 0.5%) and you have to go back to June 2022 for a higher monthly acceleration.

The general consensus is that higher rates should lead to lower inflation. This means the 2-year inflation expectations in the market should be declining as the Fed gets more aggressive, but as Lisa Abramowicz pointed out this morning, inflation expectations in the market have actually been increasing over the last 6 months.

Twitter avatar for @lisaabramowicz1
Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1
U.S. 2-year inflation expectations have surged over the past six months, despite tighter Fed policy.
Image
1:16 PM ∙ Mar 2, 2023
86Likes35Retweets

Inflation expectations are not the only place where the market is being distorted by this central bank intervention though. Charlie Bilello points out that US Treasury yields have gone from historic lows to 16-year highs in just over a year.

Charlie goes on to highlight the Fed’s tightening has had on the classic 60/40 portfolio. He writes “a US 60/40 portfolio is currently in a 14-month drawdown, 14% below its high. This is now the longest drawdown for a 60/40 portfolio since the financial crisis (37 months) and before that the dot-com bubble (43 months).”

As we see the standard portfolio allocation crashing in value, and the depletion of individual’s savings,

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Layoffs will increase to match 2018 levels which should be another 400,000

-
Image
 Layoffs will increase to match 2018 levels which should be another 400,000 How bad are the layoffs? Tech  has been hit hard by layoffs. Are these layoffs a leading indicator of greater economic problems, or a natural reset after unsustainable healthy growth?  We're not going to be able to answer that question definitively, but we're going to dig into jobs numbers to contextualize what's going on. To start, we updated the data behind our  article on the Great Resignation .
Read more

NYMO and NAMO Indicators

-
Image
 NYMO and NAMO Indicators Take a look at the McClellan Oscillators for the NYSE and the Nasdaq (NYMO and NAMO)… (Click here to expand image) (Click here to expand image) These are momentum-based indicators that help determine overbought and oversold conditions.  Readings of more than 60 indicate severely overbought conditions and often precede large declines in the markets. Readings of less than -60 express extremely oversold conditions and usually lead to strong bounces in stock prices. Both indicators closed in the extremely overbought territory last Friday. This is the sixth time in the past year that both the NYMO and the NAMO have been above 60 at the same time. Now, here’s how the S&P 500 performed after the four previous times… The market fell almost immediately following all five of the previous setups. The setup in mid-July led to only a brief, short-term pullback – lasting about one week. The S&P 500 then went on to rally about 10% over the next month into a ...
Read more

Critical Thinking, Logic & Problem Solving The Ultimate Guide to Better Thinking, Systematic Problem Solving and Making Impeccable Decisions with Secret Tips to Detect Logical Fallacies Bigrock Thinking

-
Image
  Critical Thinking, Logic & Problem Solving The Ultimate Guide to Better Thinking, Systematic Problem Solving and Making Impeccable Decisions with Secret Tips to Detect Logical Fallacies Bigrock Thinking Have you ever wished you were a more effective thinker? Do you feel overwhelmed when presented with a problem? In  Critical Thinking, Logic & Problem Solving , Bigrocks Thinking explains how you can enhance your critical thinking and problem-solving abilities to improve your learning, your work, and your personal life. The authors provide a step-by-step method for improving your ability to think critically and solve problems. They offer tips for conducting and thinking about research and information, covering issues like source reliability and logical fallacies. They also explain how to develop and implement solutions to problems, and they provide guidance on how to structure your thinking for effective communication and powerful storytelling. In our guide, we’ll also...
Read more