Invest in previous year laggards in 2023

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Leaders and Laggards



Invest in previous year laggards in 2023

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Fed will not bring down inflation

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  Why does anyone believe the Fed can control inflation via changes in the Fed Funds “policy rate,” the overnight lending rate that the Fed can control the most. If this constantly repeated claim were true, it would show up in the data in the form of a close correlation between inflation and the Fed Funds rate. Look at the first graph below. Graph 1: Low correlation between Fed Funds Rate and CPI since 1983 We do see some co-movement from 1975 until about 1983, and then it stops. It is very difficult to detect even a correlation, never mind causation for the next 40 years. Inflation stays in a range first from roughly 1-5%, then well below 5% all the way from 1990 to 2021, spanning 31 years. Meanwhile the Fed Funds rate hopped up and down with no discernible impact on inflation. Amazingly, from 2009 through most of 2017, the Fed rate was below 1% and for much of the time near 0%. There was virtually no inflation. Graph 2 paints an even more dramatic picture, albeit using an inflati...
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Higher interest rates not lowering interest rates

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