Businesses are already feeling it:

Only 39.4% of manufacturing businesses reported paying higher prices in December, according to ISM’s prices-paid index. 39.4%! That’s less than half.   People may be feeling it soon:

The Atlanta Fed’s tracker suggests the trend in wages has finally reversed. The trend change is most pronounced for hourly workers, which should — but probably won’t — give the hawkish FOMC pause.   The biggest trend change:

Their own rate hikes mean that the Fed is now paying more interest out to banks than it collects on its massive bond portfolio. That’s put the central bank $22 billion in the hole, which is admittedly not much when you’re in charge of the money printer. But if Fed Funds were to go to double digits, the central bank could be losing more than $1 trillion a year, according to the Grumpy Economist blog. This may be what the FOMC has in mind as they continue to err on the side of caution.    Still going up:

Potatoes are still getting more expensive, rising another 1.6% in December — probably because we keep ordering more fries. But now that I know potatoes are vegetables, my personal fry-attachment rate will be going higher still.