Historically speaking, if the Santa rally doesn’t happen, look out for a bear market in 2023. The failure of a rally from December 23 to January 4th has preceded bear markets in the past.
As I dug into the data this morning, I found a few things that were interesting. First, January’s 0.5% acceleration in the CPI was the most since October 2022 (also 0.5%) and you have to go back to June 2022 for a higher monthly acceleration. The general consensus is that higher rates should lead to lower inflation. This means the 2-year inflation expectations in the market should be declining as the Fed gets more aggressive, but as Lisa Abramowicz pointed out this morning, inflation expectations in the market have actually been increasing over the last 6 months. Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1 U.S. 2-year inflation expectations have surged over the past six months, despite tighter Fed policy. 1:16 PM ∙ Mar 2, 2023 86 Likes 35 Retweets Inflation expectations are not the only place where the market is being distorted by this central bank intervention though. Charlie Bilello points out that US Treasury yields have gone from historic lows to 16-year highs in...
List of market outlook for 2023 Goldman Sachs https://lnkd.in/eKzF_2K4 J.P. Morgan https://lnkd.in/eHb6-622 Morgan Stanley https://lnkd.in/e2nAMjmM Bank of America https://lnkd.in/e8XFD8TW BlackRock https://lnkd.in/eYxCBRGj HSBC https://lnkd.in/eNfBiJvH Barclays https://lnkd.in/eRT4dsFY . NatWest https://lnkd.in/euftbUw6 Citi https://lnkd.in/eXwA-Y4X UBS https://lnkd.in/exudCU6V Credit Suisse https://lnkd.in/e4CEK5NZ BNP Paribas https://lnkd.in/ec4hWEdm Deutsche Bank https://lnkd.in/eAWCSV_7 ING https://lnkd.in/eNpdmVH8 Apollo Global Management, Inc. https://lnkd.in/ewwq_62M Wells Fargo https://lnkd.in/euMkQnKE BNY Mellon https://lnkd.in/ezMfVgND Fidelity International https://lnkd.in/eJwK6tVx Lazard https://lnkd.in/eku-xhqp
NYMO and NAMO Indicators Take a look at the McClellan Oscillators for the NYSE and the Nasdaq (NYMO and NAMO)… (Click here to expand image) (Click here to expand image) These are momentum-based indicators that help determine overbought and oversold conditions. Readings of more than 60 indicate severely overbought conditions and often precede large declines in the markets. Readings of less than -60 express extremely oversold conditions and usually lead to strong bounces in stock prices. Both indicators closed in the extremely overbought territory last Friday. This is the sixth time in the past year that both the NYMO and the NAMO have been above 60 at the same time. Now, here’s how the S&P 500 performed after the four previous times… The market fell almost immediately following all five of the previous setups. The setup in mid-July led to only a brief, short-term pullback – lasting about one week. The S&P 500 then went on to rally about 10% over the next month into a ...
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