Prediction No. 1: The G7 Price Cap on Russia Fails

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Prediction No. 1: The G7 Price Cap on Russia Fails

My first prediction lies with the continued oil struggles with Russia.

Specifically, I believe the G7 price cap at $60 per barrel on Russian crude oil will fail. Russia’s fleet of over 100 “shadow” tankers will allow it to circumvent the G7 price cap.

According to The Wall Street Journal, this “shadow fleet” will change flags, turn off transmitters that employ decoy signals, and swap crude oil at sea. In the end, Russia will likely sell more crude oil to China, India, Saudi Arabia, and UAE, where it can be refined.

So those countries, especially India, can then sell excess refined products like diesel and fuel oil. Officially, Russia is refusing to sell crude oil to companies that are complying with the G7 price cap.

[This seems very likely as the Russian/Ukraine war will end in H2 and the OPEC will push for higher prices. 

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