PMI Index

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PMI Index


There isn’t a single related segment that is positive over the previous issue. Now, you can look at this and say the market will head lower until there’s a positive reading or you can say that all of this negative news is ultimately good for the future jobs report because this should help push jobless claims higher, which should help with wage inflation. 

One problem with reports is that they only tell you what you have already seen happen.  The PMI forecast is much more positive, but we’ll need to see the January report show results before the forecast is confirmed.  Based on the forecasts, January 2023 should start showing a rebound but look at where we are expected to be by January 2024.  The forecast is to be at the same level in January 2024 that we were in July 2022, so while the recovery may start to show in these reports, we will have several months to go.  



That’s why I’m struggling with being too bullish right now.  We have short-term hope and forecasts against long-term struggles and confirmed headwinds.


We are at the low of the curve at the moment!

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