Market bottoms don't happen when investors are excited. They happen when folks are scared

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 This monthly online survey began in 2013. It asks a rotating panel of roughly 1,300 households what they expect for their own economic situations. And one key question asks whether they expect stocks to be higher or lower a year from now.

Not surprisingly, the October reading was near the lowest on record. Take a look...

Just 33.9% of respondents in October expected stocks to head higher. That's only slightly more than the 33.8% low we saw in June. And while the November figure jumped to 35.7%, it's clear that most investors are darn bearish.

This data only goes back to 2013. But these recent levels still tell us a lot about how investors feel right now...

The long-term average reading was more than 40%. And the high from April 2020 was nearly 52%. So it's clear that investors expect much less from stocks today. They're extremely bearish – even though the market has already experienced plenty of pain.

That doesn't necessarily mean the bottom is in. But market bottoms don't happen when investors are excited. They happen when folks are scared. And that's the case right now.

[Folks are scared so we may be near the bottom, we will know to late when the FED lower or halt interest rate changes.]

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