Conference Board’s Composite Leading Indicators Index

-

 The most composite gauge of U.S. economic activity – the Conference Board’s Composite Leading Indicators Index – is currently flashing a reading of 98.4. That’s not great. But it’s not awful, either. Typically, shallow recessions feature readings between 96 and 98. Deep recessions tend to have readings of less than 96. 


In other words, if the Fed pauses within the next few months, U.S. economic activity should stabilize at levels far above what is typically associated with a deep recession, and even above levels that are typically associated with mild recessions. 

In short, the U.S. economy should avoid a deep recession in 2023. And it will likely even avoid any sort of recession. 

That, of course, should help stocks power higher in 2023.

U.S. E- Commerce Sales. A chart showing revenue since 1999 shows upward growth in billions.


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Higher interest rates not lowering interest rates

-
Image
  As I dug into the data this morning, I found a few things that were interesting. First, January’s 0.5% acceleration in the CPI was the  most since October 2022  (also 0.5%) and you have to go back to June 2022 for a higher monthly acceleration. The general consensus is that higher rates should lead to lower inflation. This means the 2-year inflation expectations in the market should be declining as the Fed gets more aggressive, but as Lisa Abramowicz pointed out this morning, inflation expectations in the market have actually been increasing over the last 6 months. Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1 U.S. 2-year inflation expectations have surged over the past six months, despite tighter Fed policy. 1:16 PM ∙ Mar 2, 2023 86 Likes 35 Retweets Inflation expectations are not the only place where the market is being distorted by this central bank intervention though.  Charlie Bilello points out  that US Treasury yields have gone from historic lows to 16-year highs in...
Read more

List of market outlook for 2023

-
  List of market outlook for 2023 Goldman Sachs  https://lnkd.in/eKzF_2K4 J.P. Morgan  https://lnkd.in/eHb6-622 Morgan Stanley  https://lnkd.in/e2nAMjmM Bank of America  https://lnkd.in/e8XFD8TW BlackRock  https://lnkd.in/eYxCBRGj HSBC  https://lnkd.in/eNfBiJvH Barclays  https://lnkd.in/eRT4dsFY . NatWest  https://lnkd.in/euftbUw6 Citi  https://lnkd.in/eXwA-Y4X UBS  https://lnkd.in/exudCU6V Credit Suisse  https://lnkd.in/e4CEK5NZ BNP Paribas  https://lnkd.in/ec4hWEdm Deutsche Bank  https://lnkd.in/eAWCSV_7 ING  https://lnkd.in/eNpdmVH8 Apollo Global Management, Inc.  https://lnkd.in/ewwq_62M Wells Fargo  https://lnkd.in/euMkQnKE BNY Mellon  https://lnkd.in/ezMfVgND Fidelity International  https://lnkd.in/eJwK6tVx Lazard  https://lnkd.in/eku-xhqp
Read more

NYMO and NAMO Indicators

-
Image
 NYMO and NAMO Indicators Take a look at the McClellan Oscillators for the NYSE and the Nasdaq (NYMO and NAMO)… (Click here to expand image) (Click here to expand image) These are momentum-based indicators that help determine overbought and oversold conditions.  Readings of more than 60 indicate severely overbought conditions and often precede large declines in the markets. Readings of less than -60 express extremely oversold conditions and usually lead to strong bounces in stock prices. Both indicators closed in the extremely overbought territory last Friday. This is the sixth time in the past year that both the NYMO and the NAMO have been above 60 at the same time. Now, here’s how the S&P 500 performed after the four previous times… The market fell almost immediately following all five of the previous setups. The setup in mid-July led to only a brief, short-term pullback – lasting about one week. The S&P 500 then went on to rally about 10% over the next month into a ...
Read more