Electric Vehicle Sales

According to our modeling, though, that 10% number is about to jump to 80% over the next two decades, implying jaw-dropping EV volume growth of ~2,000% over the next 20 years, as multiple game-changing trends converge to set the stage for EVs to finally take over the world.

Simply consider the following:

• The demand is shifting. Today’s consumers are more aware than ever before of climate change, and are increasingly aligning their purchasing decisions to “go green.” As a result, over 60% of prospective car buyers in the U.S. today want an EV – and that number is going up every single year.
• The laws are changing. Governments are also more aware than ever before of climate change, and are increasingly enacting legislature to promote adoption of “green” technologies. More than 200 cities and counties across the world have a “100% clean energy” target for 2030, 2040, or 2050 – while districts on the cutting edge of green tech (like California and New Jersey) are outright banning gas car sales after 2035.
• The tech is improving. EVs used to be significantly limited by driving range. Thanks to major technological improvements on the battery front, that’s no longer true. The average range of an EV has increased 140% since 2011, with a fully-charged EV now getting as much range as a gas car at 300-plus miles (and some EVs even fetching over 500 miles of range). Even further, gas cars aren’t increasing their driving ranges. EVs are, and rapidly – so by 2030, EVs will be able to drive significantly farther than gas cars.
• The costs are falling. EVs also used to be significantly limited by costs. That is, they have traditionally been far more expensive than gas cars. Again, though, this is no longer the case. Average EV prices have dropped 70% since 2010, and are now largely on par with gas cars. Economies of scale and technological improvements will unlock further cost reductions, and by 2030, EVs will be substantially cheaper than gas cars.
• The supply is pivoting. For years, auto industry incumbents were asleep at the wheel when it came to the EV revolution. Not anymore. Every major automaker in the world – from Ford to GM to Bentley – is making all-out blitz into the EV category, in what will amount to an unprecedented surge in EV supply over the next decade.